Weak Demand for Winter Holidays

Nuremberg, October 29, 2026 – The 2026 summer season is set to close on a positive note: With one month still to go, total sales have already exceeded the previous summer season's level by 3%. Bookings for summer holidays in 2027 are also gaining noticeable momentum. However, the upcoming winter season 2026/27 remains uncertain. Following weak booking intake in September, the cumulative shortfall in winter sales has widened by another percentage point compared with the previous month, reaching minus 3%.

Short-notice bookings for autumn holidays in October, a key school holiday month, accounted for around a quarter of total sales generated in September 2026. A further 12% of monthly sales came from last-minute departures in September itself. Bookings for the upcoming winter season and early bookings for summer 2027 accounted for almost equal shares of monthly sales, at 30% and 29%, respectively. While early summer bookings are showing growth, particularly through high street travel agencies, demand for winter holidays remains comparatively subdued. Cumulative sales for the new winter season are below the previous year's levels in both high street travel agencies (-3%) and online travel distribution (-2%). The weakness is primarily concentrated in the early winter travel months of November and December, whereas January through March are recording modest increases.

Among the different winter holiday segments, only cruises and land-based holidays are showing positive growth at the current booking position as of the end of September. Cruises are particularly significant, with sales increasing by 4% and the number of booked passengers rising by as much as 8% year-on-year. For the first time, travel distribution channels have recorded more winter holiday bookings for cruises than for long-haul holidays. Strong demand for cruise holidays is therefore having a positive impact on overall market performance. Excluding cruises, tour operator holidays for the winter season 2026/27 are currently 9% below the previous year's level in terms of booked passengers and 5% lower in sales.

Legend:

The chart illustrates cumulative travel sales generated up to the end of September 2026 for the current summer season 2026 and the upcoming winter season 2026/27, each compared with the corresponding period of the previous year. TDA's market analysis covers holiday bookings made through both high street travel agencies and online distribution channels, including tour operators' booking platforms and Online Travel Agencies (OTAs), with a particular focus on package holidays.The left-hand side of the chart shows the percentage share of total sales generated in September 2026 attributable to the individual travel months and seasons.