Summer slowly approaching previous year’s level

Nuremberg, August 19, 2019 - The balance sheet for the 2019 summer season is gradually approaching the good level of the previous year: although it is currently still one percent below the previous year's level, it has to stand up to the strong growth of the previous year, which at the end of July was at a plus of 13 percent. Advance bookings for the new 2019/20 winter season, which begin with the travel month of November, are off to a rather disappointing start of minus five percent.

The current 2019 summer season has achieved a visible improvement with a three percent increase in sales in the booking month of July: the cumulative figure improved by one percentage point compared with the previous month to minus one percent. Although this means that the extremely good level of the previous year has not yet been reached again, to speak of "weak demand" would be presumptuous in view of the strong growth in the previous year (+13 percent). The 2018/19 tourism year, i.e. including the previous winter season, currently has turnover of plus one percent.

In July 2019, one third of booking turnover - one percentage point more than in the same month of the previous year - was due for short-term holiday bookings with departure in July or August 2019. This meant that their revenue balance sheets in particular improved: The travel month of July ends with a minus of one per cent, August currently shows only a minus of 0.5 percent and has therefore close to the previous year's level. 

The advance bookings for the coming 2019/20 winter season, which begins with the travel month of November, are comparatively disappointing with a cumulative turnover level of minus five per cent. The turnover level at this early booking level at the end of July is still too low for serious concerns, but the trend is thought-provoking: the so far reliable early bird is slowing down. One third of all winter sales generated to date are generated in the travel month of November. It is the only month in the winter travel half-year with a currently positive balance (+4.5 percent). The January, March and April travel months are even double-digit below their previous year's levels. In proportion to sales, holiday travel bookings for the winter months amounted to 35.7 percent of monthly sales in July - 0.6 percentage points less than in the previous year. 

The chart shows the travel turnober generated in July 2019 and cumulated to the end of July 2019 for the 2019 summer season and 2019/20 winter season compared with the previous year. Both holiday travel bookings in stationary travel agencies and online on the travel portals of tour operators and online travel agencies (OTAs) with a focus on package tours are included. The left-hand side of the chart shows how much revenue has been generated in percent for the summer and winter seasons compared to the previous year's season (final figures).

About Travel Insights

The tourism sales panel Travel Insights is based on booking data from approximately 2,000 travel agencies, which represent the stationary distribution market in Germany in a representative way. In addition, booking data of the classic travel portals and tour operators is gathered online. Projected to the overall market, Travel Insights’ evaluations allow reliable conclusions on the booking and travel behavior of German tourists. Current trends and developments in the tourism market can be traced in a timely manner. The core business of travel agencies and the online travel portals of the organizers and so-called OTAs (Online Travel Agencies) is based on package holidays or vacations booked by.

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About Travel Data + Analytics

Travel Data + Analytics GmbH (TDA), founded by Dr. Markus Heller, took over the tourist trade panel of Travel Insights from GfK in April 2019. Until the end of the current tourism year 2018/19, i.e. until the end of October 2019, the booking data of the travel distribution and analyses will continue to be processed by GfK’s systems. At the same time, system development is executed on the part of TDA. With the completion of the transition phase, all booking data will be loaded retroactively from the tourism year 2016/17, in order to ensure a seamless transition. The Travel Insights team will continue their work as an independent and autonomous entity from Nuremberg.