Nuremberg, July 31, 2020 - After weeks of travel standstill in the wake of the Corona pandemic, travel bookings have been slowly but steadily picking up again since the beginning of May 2020 (week 19). However, they are still far from the previous year's level: the booking volume, which includes new bookings as well as rebookings, in May and June 2020 is only just under a third of the previous year's sales. Cumulatively, the summer season thus shows a loss of 63.3 percent in terms of revenue compared with the booking level at the end of June 2020. The upcoming winter season 2020/21 currently stands at minus 42.1 percent. However, this is not the end of the road.
The losses in the seasonal balance sheets will in all likelihood continue to grow, as many vacation trips still have to be cancelled by tour operators due to existing travel warnings. The travel warning issued by the German Foreign Office remains in force for many popular travel destinations, such as Turkey and Egypt, and will continue to apply at least until the end of August 2020. The level of new bookings is not yet sufficient to absorb the losses caused by cancellations.
Based on new bookings (including rebookings), 40 percent of sales in the booking month of June were attributable to the vacation period in July and August. With the end of travel restrictions to other European countries, destinations around the Mediterranean and flight package tours are once again in greater demand. The share of vacation bookings to nearby destinations, especially within Germany, remains comparatively high at around a quarter of booking sales. Another striking feature is the high proportion of bookings for next year's summer season: many Germans are apparently postponing their summer vacation originally planned for this year by a whole year until next summer in 2021.
Travel bookings for the fall months of September/October and, in particular, for the upcoming 2020/2021 winter season with travel months from November 2020 to April 2021 are currently well below average and worryingly low. Consumers are "driving on sight" and obviously have little confidence in longer-term vacation planning and advance bookings. The lack of planning certainty in times of Corona means that significant sales losses continue to accrue in travel sales and for tour operators.
Legend:The chart shows the cumulative travel revenues generated up to the end of June 2020 for the 2020 summer season and the upcoming 2020/21 winter season compared with the previous year. Both vacation travel bookings in stationary travel agencies and online on the travel portals of tour operators and online travel agencies (OTAs) with a focus on package tours are included. The chart on the left shows the percentage of sales generated in the booking month of June for the individual travel months and seasons.
Note: Holiday sales that have definitely not been departed due to cancellations on the part of the tour operators are adjusted in the balance sheets at TDA Travel Intelligence at the end of the respective travel month. As of today, this applies to all trips cancelled by the end of June 2020.
About TDA Travel Intelligence
Travel Data + Analytics GmbH (TDA), founded by Dr. Markus Heller, acquired the tourism retail panel "Travel Insights" from GfK in April 2019 and continues to operate it as "TDA Travel Intelligence". It is based on the booking data of around 2,000 travel agencies, which represent the stationary distribution market in Germany. In addition, the online area includes the booking data of classic travel portals and tour operators. Projected to the total market, the evaluations of TDA Travel Intelligence allow reliable conclusions to be drawn about the booking and travel behaviour of German holidaymakers. Current trends and developments in the tourism market can be tracked in real time. The core business of travel agencies, the online travel portals of tour operators and so-called OTAs (online travel agencies) is based on holiday trips booked as a package or in modules.