Nuremberg, October 30, 2023 - Bookings on the German holiday market remain at a high level, exceeding both the previous year and the comparative year 2019. Many Germans booked autumn holidays at short notice in September 2023 and almost every fourth euro in sales is already due to bookings for summer holidays in the coming year. However, the upcoming winter season 2023/24 has also experienced a considerable boost in sales: The cumulative winter balance climbed by 2 percentage points compared to the previous month to a plus of 8 per cent on the pre-Corona level. The summer season, which is still underway, is up one percentage point on the previous month to a 12 per cent increase in turnover.
However, the number of short-term bookings during September 2023 is not quite as high as in the previous year (-8 percentage points), but it is still above the average: 40 per cent of the monthly turnover is accounted for by autumn holiday bookings, the share of which (27 per cent) is accounted for by the break week at the end of October. With the above-average short-term share, the cumulative balance of the still ongoing summer season is again improving: Compared to the pre-Corona summer of 2019, it now shows a 12 per cent increase in turnover, and a 15 per cent increase compared to last year's summer.
For the coming winter season 2023/24, holiday bookings to date paint a very promising picture: long-haul travel is approaching its previous sales level (-5 per cent), while cruises have already clearly surpassed it (+12 per cent). In the long-haul segment, it is individual destinations such as Cuba or Australia, for example, that are still lagging behind their former strength and are depressing the balance sheet. Overall, demand in the German market is confident. One month before the start of the new winter season, half of the sales volume of the previous winter season 2022/23 has already been achieved, and the "filling level" for winter 2018/19 is 48 percent: a promising value that shows an increasing behavior, which is considered normal in the leisure travel business - as well as the return of early bookers: almost every fourth sales euro booked in September is already accounted for by next year's summer season or even later travel dates.
According to the booked turnover, the new winter season 2023/24 stands at a plus of 8 per cent at the current booking level as of the end of September - two percentage points more than in the previous month. The high double-digit growth in turnover compared to the previous year (+53 per cent), which was due to the initial reluctance of holidaymakers to book last year, is now expected to continue to decline from month to month. The fact that the cost of living, which has risen due to inflation, is not without influence on the holiday travel business is documented by the number of people booked, which is down both for the winter season (currently: -17 per cent) and for the summer season still underway (-13 per cent).
Legend:The chart shows the cumulative travel sales generated up to the end of September 2023 for the ongoing summer season 2023 in comparison to previous years (summer season 2019). For the travel seasons, TDA compares the booking status adjusted for trips that were cancelled in previous years due to corona. Both holiday travel bookings in high street travel agencies and online on the travel portals of the tour operators and online travel agencies (OTAs) with a focus on package tours are included. The chart on the left shows the percentage of sales in the booking month September that belongs to the individual travel months or seasons.
About TDA Travel Intelligence
Travel Data + Analytics (TDA) took over in spring 2019 the travel sales panel run by the Nuremberg market research company GfK since 2004. After the GfK data had been migrated to a new IT landscape, Travel Intelligence was set up as an independent solution with a self-learning database and associated analysis tool. The basis remains the booking data from stationary travel agencies and online portals that sell tour operator products. The requirements of tourism companies on a modern control instrument and evolving, increasingly dynamic questions can thus be mapped reliably and promptly, without giving up the core of a market-representative method that is consistently comparable over time. TDA = Current booking situation + individual product performance + new market opportunities.